Populations at Risk of Malaria

 

 

On this page the estimated populations at risk of malaria are summarized in table format.

 

This information is the same as that provided in the Population module of the MARA LITe, but in less detail.

 

The various MARA malaria distribution models are combined with a population distribution map to estimate the number of people living at risk of malaria.

 

To calculate the population for a particular age group:

                Total Population 1990 * Proportion in age group

          eg: Angola, 0 to 4 year olds in 1990 =

                9,228,175 * 0.19838 = 1,830,685

 

To calculate the projected population for a particular year:

                Total Population 1990 * exp( [year-1990] * Annual Exponential Growth Rate )

          eg: Angola total population in 2004 =

                9,228,175 * exp(14*0.03343) = 14,735,821

 

To calculate the population at risk of malaria for a particular age group and/or year:

                Population at risk for 1990 * Proportion in age group * exp( [Year-1990] * Annual Exponential Growth Rate )

          eg: Angola 0 to 4 year olds at high (75% plus) risk of endemic malaria in 2002 =

                4,251,686 * 0.19838 * exp(12*0.03343) = 1,259,739

 

 

Table 1: Total Populations, Age Groups & Annual Growth Rates

 

Table 2: Distribution of Endemic Malaria

Table 3: Duration of the Malaria Transmission Season

Table 4: Malaria Prevalence in West Africa

 

Table 1: Total Populations & Age Groups

 

Country

Total Population 1990

Proportion 0 to 4

Proportion 5 to 9

Proportion 10 to 14

Proportion 15 plus

Annual Exponential Growth Rate*

Angola

9,228,175

0.19838

0.15440

0.12416

0.52306

0.03343

Benin

4,657,436

0.18648

0.16149

0.13638

0.51565

0.02664

Botswana

1,265,352

0.16134

0.14330

0.12955

0.56580

0.02469

Burkina Faso

9,045,011

0.19140

0.15484

0.12848

0.52528

0.02762

Burundi

5,476,212

0.18382

0.15433

0.12762

0.53424

0.02078

Cameroon

11,142,398

0.17186

0.14486

0.12554

0.55775

0.02762

Central African Republic

2,925,970

0.16174

0.14109

0.11887

0.57830

0.02078

Chad

5,564,511

0.17384

0.14193

0.11997

0.56425

0.02859

Congo

2,226,851

0.18465

0.14913

0.12255

0.54368

0.02859

Democratic Republic of Congo

37,372,229

0.19481

0.15246

0.12452

0.52822

0.03343

Djibouti

513,414

0.15639

0.13642

0.11842

0.58877

0.02176

Equatorial Guinea

352,000

0.17434

0.14115

0.11662

0.56789

0.02567

Eritrea

2,851,679

0.17522

0.14626

0.11911

0.55942

0.02762

Ethiopia

48,103,167

0.19264

0.14959

0.11933

0.53844

0.02664

Gabon

935,000

0.14928

0.12754

0.10368

0.61950

0.02762

Gambia

921,000

0.16655

0.13408

0.11025

0.58913

0.03537

Ghana

15,003,180

0.16937

0.15130

0.12798

0.55136

0.02956

Guinea

5,679,083

0.19520

0.15160

0.12427

0.52893

0.02762

Guinea Bissau

963,453

0.16658

0.13637

0.11609

0.58096

0.02176

Ivory Coast

11,634,908

0.16198

0.15205

0.13381

0.55216

0.02469

Kenya

23,468,259

0.16108

0.16006

0.13909

0.53978

0.02567

Liberia

2,575,000

0.13803

0.15305

0.13265

0.57627

0.01390

Madagascar

12,642,000

0.18165

0.15755

0.12904

0.53177

0.03150

Malawi

9,160,377

0.19107

0.15179

0.12583

0.53131

0.01489

Mali

9,209,586

0.19739

0.15305

0.12388

0.52568

0.02372

Mauritania

1,995,518

0.16362

0.13755

0.13003

0.56881

0.02762

Mocambique

14,172,274

0.18052

0.14665

0.12177

0.55106

0.03440

Namibia

1,376,186

0.16114

0.14078

0.12136

0.57672

0.02567

Niger

7,731,000

0.20425

0.15425

0.12543

0.51607

0.03247

Nigeria

96,154,004

0.18448

0.14799

0.12326

0.54427

0.02469

Rwanda

6,954,000

0.17753

0.15323

0.13569

0.53354

0.00399

SaoTome Principe

119,000

0.18770

0.14980

0.12370

0.53880

0.00220

Senegal

7,327,000

0.17340

0.14670

0.12553

0.55437

0.02567

Sierra Leone

3,997,000

0.17866

0.14341

0.11871

0.55922

0.01882

Somalia

8,622,495

0.19695

0.15317

0.12475

0.52513

0.02469

South Africa

36,975,075

0.13656

0.12215

0.11412

0.62717

0.01784

Sudan

24,061,678

0.14705

0.13210

0.13175

0.58910

0.01980

Swaziland

740,373

0.16444

0.13901

0.12722

0.56933

0.02956

Tanzania

25,376,052

0.17910

0.15183

0.12846

0.54061

0.02762

Togo

3,524,000

0.18364

0.15012

0.12463

0.54161

0.02762

Uganda

16,592,091

0.19962

0.15580

0.13023

0.51435

0.02762

Zambia

7,323,703

0.18063

0.15879

0.14179

0.51879

0.02372

Zimbabwe

9,854,805

0.17206

0.14356

0.12751

0.55686

0.01686

* From WHO Health Report 2000

Table 2: Distribution of Endemic Malaria

This table contains estimated total populations at various levels of risk of endemic malaria for the year 1990.

 

For more information on this malaria distribution model click here.

 

 

Country

Climate <25% suitable (malaria epidemic or absent)

Climate 25 to 75% suitable (malaria marginal or strongly seasonal)

Climate >75% suitable (malaria endemic; perennial or seasonal)

Angola

1,201,578

3,774,911

4,251,686

Benin

0

0

4,657,436

Botswana

809,342

289,637

166,374

Burkina Faso

0

0

9,045,011

Burundi

2,050,670

2,296,580

1,128,962

Cameroon

819,176

2,094,358

8,228,864

Central African Republic

0

1,947

2,924,023

Chad

258,582

506,768

4,799,161

Congo

0

2,906

2,223,945

Democratic Republic of Congo

3,371,389

2,368,927

31,631,913

Djibouti

508,596

4,554

263

Equatorial Guinea

7,024

2,115

342,861

Eritrea

351,209

2,047,355

453,116

Ethiopia

30,993,079

10,601,558

6,508,530

Gabon

32,826

41

902,133

Gambia

0

0

921,000

Ghana

0

248,912

14,754,268

Guinea

3,724

40,155

5,635,203

Guinea Bissau

4,610

0

958,844

Ivory Coast

361

7,915

11,626,632

Kenya

12,375,853

6,123,901

4,968,505

Liberia

0

869

2,574,131

Madagascar

1,659,362

3,395,846

7,586,792

Malawi

399,497

1,705,285

7,055,595

Mali

139,837

761,195

8,308,554

Mauritania

706,158

468,040

821,319

Mocambique

97,629

498,212

13,576,433

Namibia

457,039

815,059

104,088

Niger

238,392

630,546

6,862,061

Nigeria

31,922

505,273

95,616,809

Rwanda

3,601,293

2,880,938

471,769

SaoTome Principe

119,000

0

0

Senegal

0

229,349

7,097,651

Sierra Leone

1,388

4,105

3,991,507

Somalia

7,279,372

1,087,096

256,028

South Africa

27,262,998

4,231,454

5,480,623

Sudan

6,414,861

4,085,955

13,560,862

Swaziland

125,094

102,054

513,226

Tanzania

1,922,306

4,418,242

19,035,504

Togo

0

0

3,524,000

Uganda

1,847,402

2,629,489

12,115,200

Zambia

396,673

852,646

6,074,384

Zimbabwe

403,347

4,115,009

5,336,449

 

Table 3: Duration of the Malaria Transmission Season

This table contains estimated total populations for the year 1990 where transmission seasons are of various months duration.

 

For more information on the malaria seasonality model click here.

 

Country

Climate unsuitable for transmission

1 to 3 months transmission

 (epidemic / marginal)

4 to 6 months transmission (seasonal)

7 - 12 months transmission (perennial)

Angola

2,365,159

1,998,836

2,028,753

2,835,427

Benin

0

0

382,694

4,274,743

Botswana

932,447

153,117

179,789

0

Burkina Faso

0

17,655

8,388,060

639,296

Burundi

2,113,050

557,241

219,156

2,586,765

Cameroon

431,205

873,581

2,863,711

6,973,902

Central African Republic

0

0

84,172

2,841,798

Chad

339,382

1,109,950

4,102,420

12,758

Congo

0

0

0

2,226,851

Democratic Republic of Congo

3,996,410

831,540

1,242,632

31,301,648

Djibouti

513,414

0

0

0

Equatorial Guinea

7,204

0

3,785

341,011

Eritrea

1,111,926

891,778

847,976

0

Ethiopia

28,571,423

10,046,511

5,919,979

3,565,254

Gabon

32,867

0

0

902,133

Gambia

0

0

921,000

0

Ghana

0

0

1,026,020

13,977,160

Guinea

2,113

20,499

548,275

5,108,195

Guinea Bissau

4,610

0

666,634

292,210

Ivory Coast

361

0

679

11,633,867

Kenya

10,872,216

1,918,171

3,398,409

7,279,463

Liberia

0

77

755

2,574,169

Madagascar

4,853,462

885,582

3,938,252

2,964,704

Malawi

1,254,078

2,051,906

5,702,739

151,654

Mali

792,112

436,546

7,797,053

183,875

Mauritania

1,220,052

702,427

73,039

0

Mocambique

254,278

258,946

11,286,930

2,372,120

Namibia

570,495

172,245

633,446

0

Niger

289,446

1,639,010

5,802,545

0

Nigeria

9,082

737,171

33,534,706

61,873,045

Rwanda

3,716,520

222,219

469,866

2,545,394

SaoTome Principe

119,000

0

0

0

Senegal

4,889

1,053,347

6,268,764

0

Sierra Leone

756

632

567

3,995,045

Somalia

8,098,237

114,953

409,306

0

South Africa

30,244,261

2,549,013

4,147,951

33,851

Sudan

7,556,517

5,405,520

8,794,947

2,304,694

Swaziland

225,525

137,567

377,281

0

Tanzania

2,847,942

1,167,568

8,185,373

13,175,168

Togo

0

0

211,114

3,312,886

Uganda

1,968,785

446,929

468,984

13,707,394

Zambia

863,557

3,237,026

2,868,001

355,119

Zimbabwe

5,082,519

1,593,081

3,179,204

0

 

Table 4: Malaria Prevalence in West Africa

This table contains estimated total populations for the year 1990 exposed to different levels of prevalence.

 

For more information on the malaria seasonality model click here.

 

Country

Prevalence <10%

Prevalence 10 to 25%

Prevalence 25 to 50%

Prevalence 50 to 75%

Prevalence >75%

Benin

0

414,255

1,930,781

2,013,138

299,263

Burkina Faso

5,529

1,067,433

5,361,608

2,610,381

60

Cameroon

102,010

1,814,775

4,547,851

4,571,745

106,016

Gambia

253,966

155,442

377,151

134,441

0

Ghana

339,062

2,157,265

5,109,823

5,307,448

2,089,582

Guinea

119,244

542,185

3,069,679

1,848,160

99,814

Guinea Bissau

60,480

354,605

472,600

74,513

1,255

Ivory Coast

8,036

244,421

5,349,621

6,031,613

1,217

Liberia

88,430

11,335

728,965

1,746,270

0

Mali

595,792

867,681

3,734,820

3,768,637

242,656

Mauritania

1,146,659

594,264

199,138

47,813

7,644

Niger

94,255

252,814

3,968,444

3,399,096

16,391

Nigeria

419,522

7,155,670

37,334,130

46,814,990

4,429,692

Senegal

2,144,867

1,295,665

2,269,306

1,531,385

85,777

Sierra Leone

438,829

842

1,943,870

1,611,517

1,942

Togo

48,423

6,561

397,032

1,843,550

1,228,434

 

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